The Process

The Process

Certis Europe worked with Forum for the Future to develop four different but plausible scenarios in which to explore how protected cropping might change by 2030, with a focus on Europe.

The scenarios are not intended to be predictions or visions of desired futures. They look at how global trends could combine to change our world, and what this could mean for protected cropping.

Future scenarios are an invaluable tool for forward-thinking businesses to use when planning ahead. They help identify risks and opportunities, inform strategy development, and stimulate innovation. The first step was to reach agreement on a set of drivers that will most influence the protected cropping industry. The Forum research team conducted field visits, for example to some of the largest UK growers and the key European horticultural trade show. Forum interviewed experts from within the Certis Europe business and external experts from across the value chain, including producers, marketing agents, retailers, financiers, government, and NGOs. Forum also pulled on research in the area and its own database of future trends.

Through this research and analysis, Forum identified more than 60 trends that could shape the future of protected cropping. Through a series of workshops these trends were discussed in detail and prioritised (there is a summary of these on the next page). We then took what we considered the most important trends and least certain for protected cropping:

Free trade vs Protectionism – by 2030 will governments allow the free flow of goods without subsidies and tariffs or will they protect their own markets?

Easy access to capital vs difficult access to capital – by 2030 will capital be easy or difficult to access to invest in new technologies and infrastructure?

We used these key trends to create a two-by-two matrix, giving us a simple scenario framework, which in turn enabled us to create the scenarios.